On June 30th, a lot of stuff happened.  The Clippers declined to offer Shaun Livingston a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent.  Corey Maggette opted out and became a free agent.  Then Elton Brand opted out and became a free agent.  And although I've insisted that it's all good news, it was still more than a little nerve-wracking.  The Baron Davis opted out and became a free agent.  Then a lot of speculation started that Davis and Brand might both be willing to take pay cuts to play for the Clippers.  But it seemed a little to good to be true.  Meanwhile, coach MDsr was having a romantic late supper with Beno Udrih.

On July 1st, a lot of stuff happened.  Jose Calderon re-signed with the Raptors.  Udrih re-signed with the Kings.  The already slim pickings among free agent point guards were getting slimmer very quickly.  But speculation heated up that Davis would sign with the Clippers.  When one report said that a decision could come as early as Wednesday, it seemed to good to be true.  And then it got better.  The deal was done, and Davis and the Clippers had agreed to terms.  Brand was clearly part of Davis' decision, and his own deal would be negotiated in short order.  It cost the club favorite son Corey Maggette, but overall it was one of the great days in team history. 

Today, July 2nd, there's nada. 

Just rumors about what OTHER teams are throwing at our free agents.  Corey Maggette will have his pick of contenders to play for while making the mid level.  Oh, and the Summer League roster.  And a massive contract offer from the Warriors to Brand, seemingly playing tit for tat.

I read the other day about a situation in a minor league baseball game where an ambidextrous pitcher was facing a switch hitting batter.  The pitcher had his specially designed glove on his left hand, preparing to pitch right-handed - so the batter got into the box on the left.  The pitcher switched his glove over - the batter asked for time and went to the other side of the plate.  This went on for awhile, until the umpire put a stop to it.

There's no way the Clippers made an offer to Baron Davis that will cost them Elton Brand.  No.  Way.  It is in fact my assumption that Baron's contract amount (which is completely determined by Elton's contract amount) was cleared with Brand and agent David Falk before Davis ever agreed to it.  If the Warriors think they are changing the game by putting more money on the table, they aren't.  And even if Brand decides he wants the money over the better teammate (it is a lot of cash, after), the Clippers will pull the plug on the Davis deal and give Elton what he wants.  But don't forget - this was all Elton's idea.  He'll sign with the Clippers for the lesser amount.  For all intents and purposes, he already has.

So what's the delay?  Who knows.  Look, it's one day.  According to the LA Times, Elton's traveling today.  Maybe they just couldn't get everyone together.  Besides, with all the speculation about collusion (frowned upon, if not necessarily illegal for players and agents), I think it behooves Elton to pretend to be interested in offers from the Warriors and the Sixers.  So he'll listen.  And then he'll sign with the Clippers for less.

I've been meaning to mention, and now's as good a time as any, that David Falk is Sam Cassell's agent as well.  We said several times during the Cassell buy out fiasco last February, that the one and only good thing that could come out of releasing Sammy was that Falk would be more inclined to work with the Clippers when Brand's contract was due.

It was a tougher day today, waiting for good news that didn't come, watching the vultures start to circle.  But the vultures won't touch the body as long as it's still kicking.  And this deal is far from dead.  Brand and Davis will be Clippers next season.  Brand's deal will be announced soon.  How soon?  Maybe tomorrow.  Maybe July 9th.  But it will happen.

UPDATE: July 3, 9:40 AM  Marc Stein of ESPN implies that there's a chance Brand will take the Warriors offer.  Don't believe him.  For one thing, when you read what he's written, even he doesn't believe Brand will be a Warrior.  So why imply otherwise?  These guys sell drama.  With no official word from anyone, they're completely free to make this seem as tense as they like, as long as they don't say anything totally wrong that will make them look stupid later (and sometimes even then).

What evidence are we working with here?  Next to nothing.  He hasn't said he's a Clipper - so that's the absence of evidence.  He flew to D.C. to meet face-to-face with his agent.  As we've said from the beginning, if the Clippers were in real danger of losing EB for more money, they would simply say, "We'll back out of the deal with Baron and give you that money."  Either way, Brand is a Clipper.  The fact that Brand is in D.C. fits that scenario fine.  The ball is totally in Brand's court, and he has two choices.  More money and no Baron Davis in LA, or less money with Baron Davis in LA.  Money in Oakland doesn't even make the list.

So, you're welcome to be nervous about the possibility of losing out on Baron Davis.  That could happen, although I doubt it.  But don't worry about Elton wearing that silly shiny gold uni next year.  Not even a remote possibility.

That certainly happened fast.

Less than 24 hours after a surprise decision in which he opted out of the final year of his contract with the Golden State Warriors, Baron Davis has reached a verbal agreement for a deal with the Clippers.  A scenario that I would have dismissed as pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking yesterday now appears to be a reality. 

Marc Stein is reporting that Davis' deal will be in the 5/$65M range.  I think we should all bow down to Citizen John R, who 7 hours ago came up with a scenario in which Baron would be paid 63.4 over 5 years.  Not too shabby.

And while this Newsday story wonders aloud about the fate of Elton Brand, that's just silly.  Davis didn't sign without Elton Brand being a part of the team, and the Clippers didn't offer Davis some of Brand's money without Brand being a part of the discussion.  Davis and Brand are a package, and they split the available money, and everyone is in the loop.  Promise.  Again, for a best guess look at John R's FanPost.  He was really close on the Baron money, which means he's really close on the Elton money.  Of course no one knows what the cap number is until next week, so the final amounts may shift around a bit.

The Clippers lineup, as of today, is as follows:

PG - Baron Davis, Brevin Knight
SG - Cat Mobley, Eric Gordon
SF - Al Thornton, Marcus Williams
PF - Elton Brand, Tim Thomas, Nick Fazekas
C - Chris Kaman, DeAndre Jordan

Is Cat Mobley the weak link?  Consider this - there were many games last season when Cat Mobley was the Clippers' number one option on offense.  In the presumptive starting lineup, he's their fifth option.  For all of his shortcomings, Cat Mobley is a VERY strong fifth scoring option.  (By the way, if the Knicks want Mobley for Jamal Crawford to free up cap space in 2010 as reported by Jonathan Abrams in the LA Times, I'd do that deal.  Crawford is younger then Mobley, not to mention that Mobley just had the worst year of his career and turns 33 soon.  I'd put the 28 year old Crawford with the 29 year old Davis and Brand and go for it.)

Williams and Fazekas are of course not yet signed.  And there are still as many as four roster spots available.  Josh Powell would seem to be a likely returnee - his deal was not fully guaranteed, but nor have the Clippers waived him yet.  Or Paul Davis may end up being the backup center if Jordan is not ready.  (I think Davis/Powell is an either or with Jordan and Fazekas both likely to be on the team.)  And they'll definitely need a third string point guard (and maybe a fourth) given the injury histories of Davis and Knight. 

Corey Maggette is gone for sure.  The Clippers now don't even have the MLE to spend on him, nor can they participate in any sign and trade.  So for Corey, it's 'hope Philly makes an offer' or 'pick the best contenders MLE'.  Not a nightmare scenario I guess, but how many guys take a pay cut the season after they average 22?

Shaun Livingston is the next key question.  As I said before, I think a multi year minimum deal is not out of the question for Shaun.  You make years 2 and beyond player options, giving him the ability to opt out and sign for more at any time that his market value increases.  The best case scenario for the Clippers then would probably be that he plays well, opts out, and earns a big raise from the Clippers.  Everybody wins.  It remains to be seen what other teams will offer Shaun.  If they can retain him, this really does become a dream scenario.  A healthy Livingston would immediately be the backup 1 and the backup 3, not to mention getting minutes at the 2 in the future when Cat is gone.

How good can this Clippers team be?  Well, pretty good.  Consider that they were one game away from the Western Conference Finals a little over two years ago.  Comparing this team to that team, you'd have to say that Baron Davis is a MAJOR upgrade over Sam Cassell, while Kaman 2.0 is a MAJOR upgrade over the former Kaman.  Livingston and Maggette were certainly big parts of that team, and they may be missed.  But Al Thornton goes a LONG way to making up for the loss of Maggette, while Livingston may yet be back.  Even if he's not, the point guard position is still in significantly better shape if Davis stays healthy.

Do Brand, Davis and Kaman constitute a Clippers 'Big 3' a la the Celtics?  It's interesting that although many reports are ignoring Kaman, it's pretty easy to make the case that he had a better season last year (aside from the injuries) than Ray Allen.  So the three isn't at issue, as far as I'm concerned.  It's how 'big' are the 'big two'?  Whether Brand can play at KG levels (he has come closer than any other player in the league in the past) remains to be seen.  And while Davis has been as good as Paul Pierce at times in his career, no one (not even Kobe Bryant) was better than Pierce last month.  Pierce and Garnett elevated their games when they teamed up - can this group do the same?

Kelly Dwyer was less than effusive in his assessment of the potential of this team earlier today.  I have to disagree.  Davis and Brand put up all star numbers year in and year out - they actually make the all star team infrequently because they're not be on great teams, but that's about to change.  Likewise Chris Kaman put up All Star center averages last season.  Can he stay healthy?  Can he do it for an entire season?  Can he do it with Brand on the court?  I think he can - he made a believer out of me.  So it's not a stretch to say that the Clippers now have three potential all stars at three key positions.  With a first team all rookie selection at the small forward, and a solid veteran at the shooting guard, I'd rate the Clippers 4th and 5th starters above those of either Boston or the Lakers.  Throw in exciting rookies coming off the bench, and sign a couple of cheap veterans, and this team could be really, really good. 

Davis is the perfect TALENT to add to the group the Clippers already had.  He plays the position where they were thin, and he will take all the big shots in all the big games.  Whether he will be happy with coach MDsr is another story.  If Baron left Oakland because he clashed with the free-wheeling Nelson, one can only imagine what could happen here.  Still, MDsr gave Cassell a LOT of rope - he seems to have different rules for vets and stars than for other players.  He'll probably give Baron more latitude than he would give to Livingston.  Let's hope anyway.

In the karma department, I can't help but think about the various things that have happened over the last two seasons that have brought us here.  If the Clippers don't miss the playoffs in 2007, they probably don't get Thornton in the draft.  If Livingston doesn't blow out his knee, they would have already extended him or certainly they would have made the QO, tying up a lot more money, probably scuttling the Davis offer.  If the team isn't wracked by injuries last season, they don't get Gordon in the draft.  For once in the history of the franchise, it seems that the Clippers' various misfortunes have been re-paid by the universe in one great good fortune.

And make no mistake, this is a great good fortune.  Consider this:  if they don't opt out, Elton Brand and Baron Davis are making $34M combined next season.  Instead, they're making $26M combined - a 24% discount - to play for the Clippers.  Or how about this factoid: last week, Brand and Maggette were on the Clippers' books for $23.5M.  Today, we're looking at Brand and Davis for 5% more.  I love Maggette and think he's underrated.  But Baron Davis is much more important to this team's chances, not to mention a much bigger draw.

Amazingly, the West just keeps getting better.  Sure, the Warriors drop off the radar a little.  But the Lakers and Jazz and Hornets are just as young and talented as they were last season.  The Spurs remain the Spurs.  I am willing to say that the sun is setting on the Mavs and the window has closed on the Suns.  But the Blazers should make a HUGE jump this season as well.  In short, the Clippers, with their best team EVER, are not even locks to get out of the first round of the playoffs.  Then again, if a Celtic-like team spirit overtakes them, they would appear to have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.  That's right.  Anyone in the league.

Let the Baron Davis Era begin.

ClipperZoe had a doctor's appointment this morning, which took some time.  I've rad the comments here at ClipsNation, but I haven't read any other reports yet today - this SF Chronicle one sounds really interesting.

Here are some bullet thoughts in the mean time:

• It's likely that Baron's decision caught everyone by surprise, and certainly pundits in the media did not see it coming.  That would explain why MDsr was talking to Udrih at 1 minute after midnight.  But the priorities necessarily switch now. 
• Although it was probably not his primary goal, Baron's decision makes me look like an idiot.  I spent several hours on a point guard post yesterday, concluded that he was an unrealistic target, set a list of priorities - and today it's all wrong.  Thanks for that, Boom-Dizzle.
• It's worth noting something here: before each opted out, EB and BD stood to earn a combined $34M+ next season.  Now, the media is ablaze with speculation that they'll split somewhere in the neighborhood of $25M to $27M to play together for the LAC.  No wonder I said it was unrealistic yesterday.  It's the kind of thing that happens to the Spurs and the Lakers and the Celtics.  It does not happen to the Clippers.
• The 2008-2009 salary cap figure has not been set yet.  That happens in about a week.  For that reason, we don't know exactly how much the Clippers can offer these guys.  Basketball Related Income (BRI) just became really, really important to all of you.  If it went up a lot this year (maybe it did, with the Lakers and Celtics thing), then the cap goes up.  The more the cap goes up, the more realistic it is to sign both these guys.
• Baron Davis went to Crossroads High in Santa Monica, and the Clippers franchise is at a crossroads with this situation.  We're literally in a situation where the team could have two all stars in the starting lineup - or it could be building around Chris Kaman.  The nature of this type of home run swing is that you can strike out.  Udrih (not that he's a savior, but still) will likely be gone by the time the Davis situation is resolved.  If you don't get Davis, maybe you can salvage Brand and Maggette.  But it's also possible that the 'I'll take more money to play on a winner' moment passes, and Brand gets disillusioned.
• It's hard to figure how much Brand saw this coming.  He was quoted talking about Udrih yesterday.  Does he say that if he had Baron Davis in mind?  And as others have pointed out, the Brand-Davis play closes the door on Brand's buddy and long time teammate Maggette.  At any rate, this seems to literally be a chance for Brand to put his money where his mouth is.  How much money is he willing to give up for the Clippers to sign an all star point guard?
  
• He hasn't been asked to play in a low post system in a long time, but in many ways Baron Davis is the ideal addition to the Clippers.  The one thing the team has needed for eternity is a go to scorer, particularly one on the perimeter.  He's all that.  He's got Sam Cassell swagger, with a half the miles and double the talent.  He could certainly clash with MDsr - but Brand and Davis get massive team leader cred if they take pay cuts, and as we saw in Boston this year, that sort of thing has a way of getting the entire team and the coach focused on one thing.
• As John R correctly pointed out, the Clippers have to renounce all of their exceptions to cobble together the money for these offers.  That means Maggette is gone.  It is less clear what it means for Livingston.  I wonder if a multi year deal at the minimum salary, where all of the subsequent years are player options, would be acceptable to Shaun.  Someone else will probably offer him more, but maybe not a lot more.  If he gets a multi-year deal, he has some security in case he can't play.  But the player options allow him to demand more money if he comes back strong.  It's not a bad compromise, and allows Livingston to stand by the franchise that stood by him.  I also feel that Shuan could play a crucial role in a very bright Clippers future.  He could be the jack-of-all-trades backup to Davis at the 1, Gordon at the 2 and Thornton at the 3.